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Saying No is hard; but in this case at what cost

By Jimbo Ar
Ecuador’s President, Daniel Noboa, called the electorate to the ballots on a National Referendum. The eleven questions established for this political process were in two main fields: security and labor market reforms. The Referendum took place on April 21, 2024.      The official results of the National Referendum are that in 9 out 11 yes-no-questions the Ecuador’s electorate gave the option of Yes a majoritarian support to the Administration’s plans. However, two questions the support leaned towards No; those questions main focus was on reforms to labor and foreign investment. The following graph show the results of the Referendum. Graph 1 Results of the National Referendum Source: CNE (National Electorate Council for it acronym in Spanish)        In the graphs, question D (3) stated that: Do you agree that the Ecuadorian State should recognize international arbitration as a method for resolving disputes in investment, contractual, or commercial matters? The final result is that the 6
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The hair of the dog

By Jimbo Ar
The expression “the Hair of the Dog” comes to mind when someone tries to understand Ecuador’s current economic affairs. The definition of that coloquial phrase, according to Dictionary.com, is the following: “A morning drink may be the last thing you want after a night of  boozing , but that’s exactly what this quirky English expression means. Originally, the expression referred to a method of treating a  rabid  dog bite; hair from the dog was placed in the wound. So in that sense, having another drink (any drink) is like taking hair from the  dog  that bit you.” (Where Did the Strange Expression “Hair of the Dog” Come From?, 2020)      President Noboa is reaching its 90 th  day in Office. However, in this short period of time his administration has faced two main issues. The first it is the security control problems due to the presence of drug cartels and systematic corruption in all layers of the political and judicial systems. The second trouble is the economic situation of the coun
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October 15th is upon Us: but the Light at the end of the Tunnel is not here

By Jimbo Ar
Ecuador’s elections would take place on October 15, 2023. The unlikely run-off between Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa would define who becomes President for nearly the next 18 months.      The Myth of the Rational voter states the following: your vote (a single vote) would not make a difference in the outcome, the voter is more informed of things such as: a TV or media influencer than the political implication of the candidate’s plans for the country.  And  finally, according to the median voter model  the candidates seek to achieve the votes of the people whom didn’t vote for them on the first round.  As Bryan Caplan states in his book “The Myth of the Rational Voter”: “Familiarity with politicians’ voting records and policy positions is predictably close to nil even on high profile issues, but amazingly good on fun topics irrelevant to policy. As Delli Carpini and Keeter remark: During the 1992 presidential campaign 89 percent of the public knew that Vice President Quayle was feudi
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An Unlikely Runoff: González vs. Noboa

By Jimbo Ar
Source: BBC News Mundo  ( Luisa González & Daniel Noboa) Ecuador’s Presidential election took place on August, 20 th , 2023. According to the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) official information, with more than 98% of the ballots in, it shows that Luisa González and Daniel Noboa are headed to the runoff in October this year. González, a disciple and loyal follower of Rafael Correa, achieved the 33.6% of the electorate; while Noboa, a self-proclaimed “progressive” –left-leaning- entrepreneur and son of banana mogul, got 23.4% of the ballots on Sunday. In other words, only 5 out of ten people supported both candidates in this election. Hence, 50% of the other constituents voted for other candidate (one out of the other 6 candidates that run for office) that means the October runoff duo have much work to do to get bigger support within the next 50 days.      However, the story goes beyond the introducing data presented in the earlier paragraph. The results show that Rafael Correa’s p
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De-dollarizing an Economy is not an Easy Task but in the Case of Ecuador it Makes No Sense

By Jimbo Ar
Ecuador adopted the US Dollar as its currency on January, 2000. The country at the time had almost a 100% rate of inflation and it used the US currency for major transactions such as: house, cars, and importations purchases, to name a few. However, there was a huge social cost of implementing the US Dollar in Ecuador. The political cost took a big hit when President Mahuad was ousted due to his decision in 2000.      Former President Jamil Mahuad in his book called: "This is how we dollarize Ecuador" (2021), makes a detailed account of the economic conditions in which the country was prior to the execution of the executive decree to use the US dollar as the country's official currency.  Mainly, in its chapter IX "Hyperinflation and freezing." Mahuad mentions the following: “We then had a triple run: a bank run (due to the withdrawal of bank deposits), an exchange run (due to the loss of Central Bank reserves caused by the purchase of dollars) and a flight of cap
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