An Unlikely Runoff: González vs. Noboa

Source: BBC News Mundo  (Luisa González & Daniel Noboa)

Ecuador’s Presidential election took place on August, 20^th, 2023. According to the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) official information, with more than 98% of the ballots in, it shows that Luisa González and Daniel Noboa are headed to the runoff in October this year. González, a disciple and loyal follower of Rafael Correa, achieved the 33.6% of the electorate; while Noboa, a self-proclaimed “progressive” –left-leaning- entrepreneur and son of banana mogul, got 23.4% of the ballots on Sunday. In other words, only 5 out of ten people supported both candidates in this election. Hence, 50% of the other constituents voted for other candidate (one out of the other 6 candidates that run for office) that means the October runoff duo have much work to do to get bigger support within the next 50 days.

    However, the story goes beyond the introducing data presented in the earlier paragraph. The results show that Rafael Correa’s political party, Revolución Ciudadana, has its deep roots within the population; maintaining the 33% its base of the general electorate for the last three political elections (either for regional or presidential).  Furthermore and not surprising, it is the fact that González gets the approval of over the 45% (in some cases higher numbers) of the population in the provinces, such as: Guayas, Manabí, Esmeraldas, Los Ríos, Santo Domingo; all these provinces have higher indexes of insecurity.

    On the other hand, Daniel Noboa is the surprise of this political process. Noboa performed well on the Presidential Debate on August 13^th. He conveyed a message without attacks on other candidates, especially to Correa’s party and its candidate, transmitted calmness, and strategy with data. The lack of stage presence and proposals by other candidates, especially Jan Topic and Otto Sonnenholzner, played a major role in favor of Noboa. Even the absence of the late Fernando Villavicencio, who was assasinated 11 days prior to Election Day, helped Noboa. But Noboa has some credit himself. He structured and planned a well-established campaign on the streets that gave him support. This support comes from young voters and that a remarkable success.

    Ecuadorians also went to the polls to elect and replace the ousted Assembly (Congress), by Lasso’s decree this past May; and the political party Revolución Ciudadana came out as a winner with 52 spots of 137, followed by Fernando Villavicencio the political movement with 31 seats. On the other hand, Noboa’s party only managed to gather 12 chairs; which means that if he becomes president he needs to lobby and reach agreements with the opposition.

    Overall, the broad view of the political situation in Ecuador is not ideal. The choices are one year and a half of the failed experiences of the so-called “Socialism of the 21^st Century,” or a left-leaning-new-comer-young entrepreneur with an Assembly run by González party. However, the electorate must decide between more of the political, economic, and social disruption and despair brought by the Rafael Correa and its Affiliates or a small sense of relief and time to plan for a better future in the long run and the presidential elections of 2025.