October 15th is upon Us: but the Light at the end of the Tunnel is not here

Ecuador’s elections would take place on October 15, 2023. The unlikely run-off between Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa would define who becomes President for nearly the next 18 months.

    The Myth of the Rational voter states the following: your vote (a single vote) would not make a difference in the outcome, the voter is more informed of things such as: a TV or media influencer than the political implication of the candidate’s plans for the country.  And  finally, according to the median voter model  the candidates seek to achieve the votes of the people whom didn’t vote for them on the first round. As Bryan Caplan states in his book “The Myth of the Rational Voter”:

“Familiarity with politicians’ voting records and policy positions is predictably close to nil even on high profile issues, but amazingly good on fun topics irrelevant to policy. As Delli Carpini and Keeter remark:

During the 1992 presidential campaign 89 percent of the public knew that Vice President Quayle was feuding with the television character Murphy Brown, but only 19 percent could characterize Bill Clinton’s record on the environment . . . 86 percent of the public knew that the Bushes’ dog was named Millie, yet only 15 percent knew that both presidential candidates supported the death penalty. Judge Wapner (host of the television series “People’s Court”) was identified by more people than were Chief Justices Burger or Rehnquist.12” (Caplan, 2011, p. 95)

    Both candidates are running for office for the first time in their life. Their hopes and long shot have become true in a blink of an eye. However, their inexperience at the highest stage of politics its noticeable. The second round presidential debate was poor and boring to say the least. Neither candidate could establish a narrative that help them to transmit their political offerings.    

    But discounting the fact of the myth of the rational voter and the lack of experience from both candidates; the sadder part it is their similarities and poor strategies  to achieve economic development and security.

    It is important to analyze the policies that these two candidates promote in their electoral campaigns. The following chat details the similarities and differences in the policies of each candidate.

		Luisa Gonzalez	Daniel Noboa
Field	Same Perspective	Different Perspective	Different Perspective
Security	Social Participation	New old secretaries of Security and Justice	Socioeconomic plan for job creation
	Rehab programs	Take guns away from the public	Judiciary reform, reforms for lesser crimes times of imprisonment
		Proportional sanctions	Hire new judiciary personnel, buy new technologies, review legislation of preventive imprisonment
		Create a new agency to eradicate cyber crimes
		Human rights training for cell guards
		Cero tolerance to police and militar intervention and the use of excessive force
		Punish human rights violations
		Strength police and military so their interventions are efficient and respectful
		Create a female police force to deal with feminine homicides
Economics		Higher expenditure in health system with new hospitals	Create incentives for people not to take their money out of the country
		Use on USD2,500 millions  of the international reserves	Purchase new technologies for the SRI to recover more money from the public
			Increase oil production by 20%
			Start the program to build crude oil refineries
			Fiscal and expenditure responsibility and cut spending
			Increase the international reserves and attract foreign investment
Employment	Promotion of collective bargaining between unions and employers	Respect for labor rights, both individual and collective. Employment Stability	Protect the dollarization, attract foreign direct investment, grantee lines of credit, and prosecution of tax evaders
	Incentives for the sustainability of employment in small companies in the popular and solidarity economy.	Workplaces free of violence and harassment	investment in strategic sectors with high potential, through tax incentives or a government fund for projects, in areas such as technology, renewable energy, tourism and agriculture
		Recognition to fathers and mothers of the time for care and upbringing	Stimulate the creation of small and medium-sized businesses
		Tax  Promote the circular economy. Promote “emerging” community public works that link people without work.	Create an infrastructure development program, focused on areas such as transportation, energy, water and sanitation
		Policies and regulations that protect workers, ensuring “fair wages, safe working conditions and adequate social protection.”	Regularly update the basic salary and sanction employers who do not comply with it
		My first job plan, with a budget of USD 67.5 million, which will finance 50% of the basic salary, during the first year of work, for 50,000 young people. The company must cover the other 50%.	Lower taxes on national and foreign companies that employ “national labor.”
		investment of USD 100 million in women's businesses, especially those who are victims of gender violence.
Rights		In favor of social manifestations and LGTBI	Beliefs in entrepreneurship with social responsibility
		Against gender violence and plans to invest USD100 millions for their victims	Argues in favor of working against gender and family violence
		Against abortion	LGBTI groups recognition and protection
		Against the results of the Yasuni ITT referendum results	In favor of keeping oil under the Yasuni ITT
Social Security		Comply with the State contribution	Control the pension system: adjust age, finance sources, more workers to the system
		Open actuarial calculations	Review the investment strategies for the founds available
		Create Social Security specialized for artists	Purchase bonds back to give liquidity
Health	National Health System with emphasis on the entry levels	Hire back doctors	Prioritize and guarantee health pregnancy: nutrition, psychological support, and child support within the first 1000 days
	Strengthen infrastructure, medicine and supplies	Set an strategy to eradicate malnutrition	Support and service to LGBTI community
		Use private health suppliers as part of the public system	Expansion and improvement of continuing training programs for health personnel
		Establish protection for public hospitals in becoming private entities	Scholarships for studies abroad and establishment of international collaboration networks
		Prioritize national production of medicine	Investment in technology that improves the efficiency and effectiveness of health services, such as telemedicine and health information systems

Noticias sobre Frente a Frente. (2023, September 22). Primicias. https://www.primicias.ec/elecciones-presidenciales-2023/frente-a-frente/

The data on the table above shows that the candidates have less in common with regards of their political promises of campaign. Furthermore, it seems like Gonzalez and Noboa don’t remember that whom ever gets the presidency; the length for the administration is 18 months. The new president would have difficulties complying with their offerings.  

     However, the biggest flaw of both candidates is not pursuing two matters: 1) Policies for social and economic development. 2) Realistic plan to regain security aceptable levels in the territory. Both lack of strategies to give real institutional change to harbour strong rule of law and defense of private property.  Lastly, neither are capable of realizing that without security nothing can move forward; the country needs to rely of foreign aid to eradicate terrorist groups and drug trafficking in the country.

At the end, October 15th is upon us; but the light at the end of the tunnel is not here.